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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-12-12T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-12T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28120/-1
CME Note: Extremely faint partial halo CME in the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 difference imagery only. Its source might very tentatively be the mid-size filament eruption starting around 2023-12-11T22:01Z and centered around ~W05N05, just N of the central (equatorial) coronal hole. The eruption is seen as a mid-size dimming area in AIA 193. Arrival signature of what is likely the combined shock of this and 2023-12-13T00:00Z CME (or just of the 2023-12-13T00:00 CME): a sharp increase in B total to initially to under 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s (possibly the arrival of and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T10:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T15:13Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28130/1
Model Inputs:
2023-12-12T00:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=5.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=306.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2023-12-12T10:23Z
2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=17.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=696.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2023-12-13T04:39Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-12-15T15:13Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =17.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.9
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-14T09:08Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-16T07:15Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T15:06Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-12-15T13:13Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231212_102300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 40.75 hour(s)
Difference: -4.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-12-13T18:12Z

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